Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.